| untung clay season dekat dengan UAS semester 8. Love that Looking for the Big Clayback | 04/26/2010 - 2:04 PM |
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New arenas mess me up. They throw my viewing game off. Two weeks ago I waxed on about how reassuring it is to return to the old European clay of Monte Carlo every spring, to see its center court in the same spot where we left it, still suspended between sky and sea, the bleachers as small and low-slung as they’ve always been, the light blanketing everything the same way it always has. Coming to Rome, I’d heard that a brand-new stadium awaited us, but, this being the Eternal City and all, I pictured a new venue that would look pretty much exactly the same as the old. The Foro Italico means fascist-kitsch statues, a marble amphitheater, and lots of low, golden, late-afternoon light, right?
It turns out that time doesn’t stand still in Rome, either. The new center court has retained the amphitheatre concept, but that low sunlight has been blocked by an upper section of bleachers, and the whole place has been filled with implacable steel-gray seats that have a way of looking conspicuously empty. The stadium might be spectacular in person, and I’ll get used to it eventually on TV. Somehow, though, empty seats look better when they’ve been around for a while. You know, at least, that they’ve been filled many times before.
And they will be again, once the top guys begin to christen the new court over the next couple of days. Let’s take a look at what might happen when they get there.
First Quarter
Roger Federer will make his first appearance since Key Biscayne a month ago, and he’ll do it as the top seed, even though he insists he’s not the man to beat during this clay season. From his statements here, and back in the U.S. earlier in the spring, Federer seems to be savoring the fact, new to him, that he has nothing to prove at Roland Garros, and that no one can ask him when he's going to win the French. Whether this will help his game by loosening him up, or hurt him by taking away an extra motivational edge remains to be seen. I’d vote for the former, but we might not see the fruits of his new state of mind until the French Open itself. You know that's where one of his eyes is already.
What we do know is that Federer won’t get a chance to ease himself back into competition. In his opener he'll play Ernests Gulbis, who took him to three close sets early in the year in Doha, and who looked pretty sharp on Monday in trouncing Marcos Baghdatis. Assuming Federer finds his clay legs in time for that one, he might face Marin Cilic, or Ivan Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro, or—why not?—Feliciano Lopez in the quarters. None of them are lay-ups, but barring disastrous form, you have to like Federer in all of them.
Semifinals: Federer
Second Quarter
Is it payback—i.e., clayback—time for Rafael Nadal? Not only is he scheduled to play Federer, who won their last meeting on clay, in Madrid in 2009, in a semifinal for the first time in five years, he’s also scheduled to face his other tormentor on dirt last season, Robin Soderling, in the quarters. Soderling has solidified his standing on hard and clay courts in 2010, and is coming off a runner-up appearance in Barcelona. Will that inspire him, or tire him? He may have to get past Tomas Berdych or Stan Wawrinka to reach the quarters. Last year in Rome, Nadal beat Soderling 1 and 0, but he’s won just one set against the Swede in the two matches they’ve played since. Weary or not, belting the ball erratically or not, Soderling will be the one guy who won’t be intimidated when he faces Nadal on clay. I will say this as far as a prediction: I'm going to want to see them play.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Third Quarter
If Rome’s draw were a see-saw, the left side, with Federer and Nadal at either end, would be on the ground and the right side flying high in the air. The highest seed in the third quarter is Andy Murray, who has spent the last couple of months trying to find the bottom of his game; he looked utterly lost two weeks ago in Monte Carlo. His second-rounder against Seppi will give us an idea of whether Murray has farther to fall. On the other side is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a guy who can lose as brilliantly and spectacularly as any player in history. Is he destined to someday do something at a Masters event on clay? I think so, but I’m not going to predict it. A safer bet for the semis may be dogged David Ferrer. At the same time, all bets could be off: This morning Juan Carlos Ferrero, the 12th seed, was blown off the court by a qualifier from Colombia named Santiago Giraldo. Kid’s got a helluva backhand. We’ll see if it works like that again.
Semifinalist: Ferrer
Fourth Quarter
Novak Djokovic and Fernando Verdasco bracket this bracket. On paper, you have to like Verdasco, who tuned Djoko in Monte Carlo 2 and 2 and followed that up by winning the biggest tournament of his career on Sunday in Barcelona. Of course, that also means that Mr Sauce hasn’t had a decent rest in more than two weeks. But his draw seems kind. The scariest names near him are Hewitt and Youzhny, and they play each other in the first round.
As for Djokovic, you can also see his chances from opposing viewpoints. After shedding the inhibiting influences of Todd Martin, Djokovic began to hit his way toward his old form in Monte Carlo. And then he woke up on the wrong side of the bed before his semifinal. Which Djokovic will show up is anyone’s guess. On the plus side, he’s reached the final in Rome the last two years, winning it in 2008 and playing Nadal close in ’09. The third round might be thest. Djokovic could get John Isner, who pushed him to five sets on clay in Davis Cup last month, and who won his first-round today, or Thomaz Bellucci, the Brazilian left-hander who’s due to make good on his potential sooner or later (though so far the answer has been later). Note: If form holds into the quarters, Djokovic had beaten Verdasco the five previous times they'd played before the Monte Carlo meltdown.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Semifinals: Nadal d. Federer; Djokovic d. Ferrer
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic
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